{"company":{"id":"anduril","slug":"anduril","name":"Anduril","code":"ANDURIL"},"units":{"monetaryValues":"millions of USD","probabilities":"decimal values from 0 to 1"},"method":{"id":"valuation-high-2026","type":"prediction-market-valuation-thresholds","title":"Prediction-market valuation threshold curve","provider":"polymarket","configuration":{"id":"valuation-high-2026","weight":1,"family":"prediction-market","familyWeight":1,"method":"prediction-market-valuation-thresholds","target":{"measure":"qualifying-company-valuation","statistic":"maximum-by-deadline","capitalizationBasis":"provider-defined","currency":"USD"},"storage":"live","assumptions":{"growthRate":0.1,"expectedDate":"2026-12-31","floorValue":100000,"upperValue":250000,"provenance":{"asOf":"2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"analyst-scenario","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31","rationale":"The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts."},"uncertainty":{"growthRateLow":0,"growthRateHigh":0.25,"floorValueLow":75000,"floorValueHigh":100000,"upperValueLow":250000,"upperValueHigh":375000}},"data":{"provider":"polymarket","events":[{"id":"main","slug":"will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31","api":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31"}],"thresholds":[{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$110B","key":"over-110000","label":"$110B or higher","value":110000,"sortOrder":1},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$125B","key":"over-125000","label":"$125B or higher","value":125000,"sortOrder":2},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$150B","key":"over-150000","label":"$150B or higher","value":150000,"sortOrder":3},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$175B","key":"over-175000","label":"$175B or higher","value":175000,"sortOrder":4},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$200B","key":"over-200000","label":"$200B or higher","value":200000,"sortOrder":5}],"claim":{"id":"will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31-npm-price","statistic":"maximum-by-deadline","deadline":"2026-12-31","comparison":"at-least","valuationSource":"npm-price","capitalizationBasis":"provider-defined","rulesUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31","eligibleEvents":["npm-price","public-market-capitalization"]}}}},"observation":{"fetchedAt":"2026-10-15T00:14:28.768Z","value":128249.02488963539,"calculation":{"thresholds":[{"key":"over-110000","label":"$110B or higher","value":110000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.9995,"sourceEvent":"Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-110b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.999,"ask":1,"lastTrade":0.999,"volume":10329.931872000001,"liquidity":null,"participants":64,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-110b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-09-02T17:33:00.420835Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-15T00:14:28.768Z","sortOrder":1,"adjustedProbability":0.9995},{"key":"over-125000","label":"$125B or higher","value":125000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.225,"sourceEvent":"Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-125b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.11,"ask":0.34,"lastTrade":0.5,"volume":9485.374874000001,"liquidity":240.5726,"participants":84,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-125b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-15T00:04:51.772956Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-15T00:14:28.768Z","sortOrder":2,"adjustedProbability":0.225},{"key":"over-150000","label":"$150B or higher","value":150000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.11000000000000001,"sourceEvent":"Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-150b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.08,"ask":0.14,"lastTrade":0.19,"volume":8126.248594000001,"liquidity":341.4017,"participants":75,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-150b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-15T00:06:53.208425Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-15T00:14:28.768Z","sortOrder":3,"adjustedProbability":0.11000000000000001},{"key":"over-175000","label":"$175B or higher","value":175000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.06999999999999999,"sourceEvent":"Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-175b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.02,"ask":0.12,"lastTrade":0.28,"volume":8324.087776,"liquidity":449.5392,"participants":66,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-175b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-15T00:06:53.208425Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-15T00:14:28.768Z","sortOrder":4,"adjustedProbability":0.07},{"key":"over-200000","label":"$200B or higher","value":200000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.07,"sourceEvent":"Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-200b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.06,"ask":0.08,"lastTrade":0.07,"volume":13502.828977000001,"liquidity":1576.1248,"participants":67,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-andurils-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-andurils-valuation-hit-high-200b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-15T00:08:52.62175Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-15T00:14:28.768Z","sortOrder":5,"adjustedProbability":0.07}],"bands":[{"key":"100000-110000","label":"$100B–$110B","lower":100000,"upper":110000,"probability":0.0004999999999999449,"representativeValue":105000,"contribution":52.499999999994216},{"key":"110000-125000","label":"$110B–$125B","lower":110000,"upper":125000,"probability":0.7745000000000001,"representativeValue":117500,"contribution":91003.75000000001},{"key":"125000-150000","label":"$125B–$150B","lower":125000,"upper":150000,"probability":0.11499999999999999,"representativeValue":137500,"contribution":15812.499999999998},{"key":"150000-175000","label":"$150B–$175B","lower":150000,"upper":175000,"probability":0.04000000000000001,"representativeValue":162500,"contribution":6500.000000000001},{"key":"175000-200000","label":"$175B–$200B","lower":175000,"upper":200000,"probability":0,"representativeValue":187500,"contribution":0},{"key":"over-200000","label":"$200B or higher","lower":200000,"upper":null,"probability":0.07,"representativeValue":250000,"contribution":17500}],"expectedPeakValue":130868.75000000001,"deadlinePeakCurrentEquivalent":128249.02488963539,"years":0.21216025169350958,"warnings":["At least one market has a bid–ask spread above 10 percentage points.","At least one provider record was last updated more than 24 hours ago."]}},"links":{"company":"/api/companies/anduril","web":"/companies/anduril#valuation-high-2026","methodology":"/methodology/prediction-market-valuation-thresholds"}}