{"company":{"id":"databricks","slug":"databricks","name":"Databricks","code":"DATABRICKS"},"units":{"monetaryValues":"millions of USD","probabilities":"decimal values from 0 to 1"},"method":{"id":"valuation-high-2026","type":"prediction-market-valuation-thresholds","title":"Prediction-market valuation threshold curve","provider":"polymarket","configuration":{"id":"valuation-high-2026","weight":1,"family":"prediction-market","familyWeight":1,"method":"prediction-market-valuation-thresholds","target":{"measure":"qualifying-company-valuation","statistic":"maximum-by-deadline","capitalizationBasis":"provider-defined","currency":"USD"},"storage":"live","assumptions":{"growthRate":0.1,"expectedDate":"2026-12-31","floorValue":170000,"upperValue":350000,"provenance":{"asOf":"2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z","basis":"analyst-scenario","sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31","rationale":"The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts."},"uncertainty":{"growthRateLow":0,"growthRateHigh":0.25,"floorValueLow":127500,"floorValueHigh":170000,"upperValueLow":350000,"upperValueHigh":525000}},"data":{"provider":"polymarket","events":[{"id":"main","slug":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31","api":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31"}],"thresholds":[{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$180B","key":"over-180000","label":"$180B or higher","value":180000,"sortOrder":1},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$190B","key":"over-190000","label":"$190B or higher","value":190000,"sortOrder":2},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$200B","key":"over-200000","label":"$200B or higher","value":200000,"sortOrder":3},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$225B","key":"over-225000","label":"$225B or higher","value":225000,"sortOrder":4},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$250B","key":"over-250000","label":"$250B or higher","value":250000,"sortOrder":5},{"event":"main","sourceTitle":"↑$300B","key":"over-300000","label":"$300B or higher","value":300000,"sortOrder":6}],"claim":{"id":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31-npm-price","statistic":"maximum-by-deadline","deadline":"2026-12-31","comparison":"at-least","valuationSource":"npm-price","capitalizationBasis":"provider-defined","rulesUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31","eligibleEvents":["npm-price","public-market-capitalization"]}}}},"observation":{"fetchedAt":"2026-10-14T23:23:58.111Z","value":218217.95391574613,"calculation":{"thresholds":[{"key":"over-180000","label":"$180B or higher","value":180000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.9995,"sourceEvent":"Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-180b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.999,"ask":1,"lastTrade":0.995,"volume":21224.044800999993,"liquidity":null,"participants":148,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-180b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-08-14T17:02:29.810059Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-14T23:23:58.111Z","sortOrder":1,"adjustedProbability":0.9995},{"key":"over-190000","label":"$190B or higher","value":190000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.9995,"sourceEvent":"Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-190b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.999,"ask":1,"lastTrade":0.999,"volume":12912.162567,"liquidity":null,"participants":112,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-190b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-08-21T06:17:43.411122Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-14T23:23:58.111Z","sortOrder":2,"adjustedProbability":0.9995},{"key":"over-200000","label":"$200B or higher","value":200000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.83,"sourceEvent":"Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-200b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.82,"ask":0.84,"lastTrade":0.78,"volume":9780.445015,"liquidity":621.5954,"participants":94,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-200b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-14T23:18:50.671444Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-14T23:23:58.111Z","sortOrder":3,"adjustedProbability":0.83},{"key":"over-225000","label":"$225B or higher","value":225000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.195,"sourceEvent":"Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-225b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.11,"ask":0.28,"lastTrade":0.42,"volume":8965.570248999999,"liquidity":309.1565,"participants":81,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-225b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-14T23:18:50.671444Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-14T23:23:58.111Z","sortOrder":4,"adjustedProbability":0.195},{"key":"over-250000","label":"$250B or higher","value":250000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.105,"sourceEvent":"Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-250b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.09,"ask":0.12,"lastTrade":0.1,"volume":12791.387060000001,"liquidity":872.7167,"participants":69,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-250b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-14T23:14:50.731857Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-14T23:23:58.111Z","sortOrder":5,"adjustedProbability":0.105},{"key":"over-300000","label":"$300B or higher","value":300000,"provider":"polymarket","rawProbability":0.057999999999999996,"sourceEvent":"Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?","sourceMarket":"will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-300b-by-december-31","sourceQuestion":"Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?","selectedMethod":"Displayed bid–ask midpoint","bid":0.028,"ask":0.088,"lastTrade":0.01,"volume":10647.266005000001,"liquidity":312.37403,"participants":50,"sourceUrl":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-valuation-hit-by-december-31/will-databricks-valuation-hit-high-300b-by-december-31","sourceUpdatedAt":"2026-10-14T23:16:53.098064Z","fetchedAt":"2026-10-14T23:23:58.111Z","sortOrder":6,"adjustedProbability":0.057999999999999996}],"bands":[{"key":"170000-180000","label":"$170B–$180B","lower":170000,"upper":180000,"probability":0.0004999999999999449,"representativeValue":175000,"contribution":87.49999999999037},{"key":"180000-190000","label":"$180B–$190B","lower":180000,"upper":190000,"probability":0,"representativeValue":185000,"contribution":0},{"key":"190000-200000","label":"$190B–$200B","lower":190000,"upper":200000,"probability":0.1695000000000001,"representativeValue":195000,"contribution":33052.50000000002},{"key":"200000-225000","label":"$200B–$225B","lower":200000,"upper":225000,"probability":0.635,"representativeValue":212500,"contribution":134937.5},{"key":"225000-250000","label":"$225B–$250B","lower":225000,"upper":250000,"probability":0.09000000000000001,"representativeValue":237500,"contribution":21375.000000000004},{"key":"250000-300000","label":"$250B–$300B","lower":250000,"upper":300000,"probability":0.047,"representativeValue":275000,"contribution":12925},{"key":"over-300000","label":"$300B or higher","lower":300000,"upper":null,"probability":0.057999999999999996,"representativeValue":350000,"contribution":20300}],"expectedPeakValue":222677.5,"deadlinePeakCurrentEquivalent":218217.95391574613,"years":0.21225628241916394,"warnings":["At least one market has a bid–ask spread above 10 percentage points.","At least one provider record was last updated more than 24 hours ago."]}},"links":{"company":"/api/companies/databricks","web":"/companies/databricks#valuation-high-2026","methodology":"/methodology/prediction-market-valuation-thresholds"}}