RaiPrediction-market IPO ladder
Uses market odds for first-day IPO capitalization, then converts the future IPO branch and a current private-company branch into comparable present-day values.
- Use
- 6 company models
- Sources
- Polymarket
Methodology
Different contracts, one derived current estimate.
The IPO ladder estimates a current equivalent of future first-day public capitalization. The threshold curve estimates a deadline maximum and bridges it to a current equivalent.
Rai’s ensemble then combines those comparable current-equivalent outputs with explicit method and evidence-family weights.
- Documented methods
- 3
- Currently applied
- 3
- Active data source
- Polymarket
Method directory
What each method does
These summaries omit the math. Open a method for its complete definition and data-source requirements.
Prediction-market valuation threshold curve
Turns a set of “at least this high” contracts into a probability distribution for the maximum valuation reached before a deadline.
- Use
- 11 company models
- Sources
- Polymarket
Rai current valuation ensemble
Normalizes method influence within each evidence family, then combines family estimates with explicit weights while preserving the input range.
- Use
- 14 company models
- Sources
- Polymarket
How to read the results
Read each result according to its target.
- 01Start with evidence
Polymarket supplies contract prices and source rules.
- 02Convert to a current equivalent
Each method applies its documented time and scenario assumptions before it enters the combined estimate.
- 03Combine with explicit weights
Rai averages within evidence families first, then across families. The input range remains visible beside the result.