Rai

Artificial intelligence

Anthropic

This estimate combines Polymarket markets about Anthropic’s possible IPO valuation and how high its valuation may reach by the deadline.

Estimated current valuation

$1.81T+0.63%1D

Rai combines 3 market-derived estimates into this current valuation.

Estimate range
*

This is the lowest-to-highest method result, not a confidence interval.

$1.45T–$2.08T
Estimates used
3
How combined
Different weights
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$1.81T
  2. 2027 IPO ladder-20.2%
    25.0% of combined estimate$1.45T
  3. 2027 higher-strike IPO-9.8%
    25.0% of combined estimate$1.63T
  4. Threshold curve+15.0%
    50.0% of combined estimate$2.08T

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
13
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT
Realized volatility
12.7%
12D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.81T$1.44T–$2.09T3
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.80T$1.45T–$2.05T3
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.78T$1.46T–$2.01T3
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.77T$1.46T–$2.00T3
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.77T$1.45T–$1.99T3
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.77T$1.46T–$2.00T3
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.78T$1.42T–$2.03T3
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.77T$1.44T–$1.99T3
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$1.77T$1.44T–$1.97T3
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.75T$1.43T–$1.97T3
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.75T$1.39T–$1.98T3
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$1.76T$1.39T–$1.99T3
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$1.74T$1.40T–$1.96T3

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027

Polymarket · 2 source events · 11 outcomes

Method estimate$1.45T
Difference from Rai estimate
-20.2%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$1.45TPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.68TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.47TIPO branch discounted 1.39 years

Probability of IPO

94.4%By Dec 31, 2027

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $100B0.3%
Raw 0.3%$75B assigned$207M conditional contribution
$100B–$200B0.2%
Raw 0.2%$150B assigned$331M conditional contribution
$200B–$300B0.2%
Raw 0.1%$250B assigned$413M conditional contribution
$300B–$400B0.3%
Raw 0.3%$350B assigned$964M conditional contribution
$400B–$600B1.0%
Raw 0.9%$500B assigned$5.2B conditional contribution
$600B–$900B3.1%
Raw 2.9%$750B assigned$24.4B conditional contribution
$900B–$1.2T7.9%
Raw 7.6%$1.05T assigned$87.9B conditional contribution
$1.2T–$1.5T16.0%
Raw 15.4%$1.35T assigned$229.1B conditional contribution
$1.5T–$1.8T26.0%
Raw 25.0%$1.65T assigned$454.5B conditional contribution
Above $1.8T39.5%
Raw 38.0%$2.1T assigned$879.3B conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline5.6%
Raw 5.4%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $100B0.3%0.3%$75B$207M
$100B–$200B0.2%0.2%$150B$331M
$200B–$300B0.1%0.2%$250B$413M
$300B–$400B0.3%0.3%$350B$964M
$400B–$600B0.9%1.0%$500B$5.2B
$600B–$900B2.9%3.1%$750B$24.4B
$900B–$1.2T7.6%7.9%$1.05T$87.9B
$1.2T–$1.5T15.4%16.0%$1.35T$229.1B
$1.5T–$1.8T25.0%26.0%$1.65T$454.5B
Above $1.8T38.0%39.5%$2.1T$879.3B
No IPO by deadline5.4%5.6%N/A—
Probability total96.1%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 96.1%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 96.1%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.68T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.39

    $1.47T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $965B

    $1.45T

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 24, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2027
Lower open bracket
$75B
Upper open bracket
$2.1T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$965B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$1.54T

20.0% discount rate

$1.29T

$723.8B no-IPO scenario

$1.43T

$1.21T no-IPO scenario

$1.46T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $100B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.3%
Volume
$156,382
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$100B–$200B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.1% / 0.3%
Volume
$72,886
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$200B–$300B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.1% / 0.2%
Volume
$19,764
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$300B–$400B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.3%
Volume
$69,792
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$400B–$600B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.7% / 1.2%
Volume
$22,147
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$600B–$900B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
2.3% / 3.6%
Volume
$22,239
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$900B–$1.2T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
6.6% / 8.6%
Volume
$20,746
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.2T–$1.5T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
9.3% / 21.5%
*

The spread is 12.2%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.

Volume
$21,970
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T–$1.8T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
21.3% / 28.7%
Volume
$23,757
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $1.8T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
37.0% / 39.0%
Volume
$121,514
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
5.0% / 5.7%
Volume
$40,994
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Anthropic, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 02 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027 higher-strike series

Polymarket · 1 source event · 10 outcomes

Method estimate$1.63T
Difference from Rai estimate
-9.8%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$1.63TPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.87TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.64TIPO branch discounted 1.39 years

Probability of IPO

98.8%By Dec 31, 2027

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $1.25T10.4%
Raw 10.5%$1T assigned$105.3B conditional contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T19.3%
Raw 19.5%$1.38T assigned$268.9B conditional contribution
$1.5T–$1.75T18.3%
Raw 18.4%$1.63T assigned$300.7B conditional contribution
$1.75T–$2T12.4%
Raw 12.5%$1.88T assigned$235.1B conditional contribution
$2T–$2.25T11.3%
Raw 11.5%$2.13T assigned$244B conditional contribution
$2.25T–$2.5T13.9%
Raw 14.0%$2.38T assigned$333.5B conditional contribution
$2.5T–$2.75T8.1%
Raw 8.2%$2.63T assigned$214.6B conditional contribution
$2.75T–$3T1.3%
Raw 1.3%$2.88T assigned$37.5B conditional contribution
Above $3T3.8%
Raw 3.9%$3.5T assigned$135.2B conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline1.2%
Raw 1.2%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $1.25T10.5%10.4%$1T$105.3B
$1.25T–$1.5T19.5%19.3%$1.38T$268.9B
$1.5T–$1.75T18.4%18.3%$1.63T$300.7B
$1.75T–$2T12.5%12.4%$1.88T$235.1B
$2T–$2.25T11.5%11.3%$2.13T$244B
$2.25T–$2.5T14.0%13.9%$2.38T$333.5B
$2.5T–$2.75T8.2%8.1%$2.63T$214.6B
$2.75T–$3T1.3%1.3%$2.88T$37.5B
Above $3T3.9%3.8%$3.5T$135.2B
No IPO by deadline1.2%1.2%N/A—
Probability total100.9%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 100.9%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 100.9%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.87T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.39

    $1.64T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $965B

    $1.63T

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2027
Lower open bracket
$1T
Upper open bracket
$3.5T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$965B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$1.74T

20.0% discount rate

$1.45T

$723.8B no-IPO scenario

$1.63T

$1.21T no-IPO scenario

$1.64T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $1.25T

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
10.0% / 11.0%
Volume
$36,805
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T–$1.5T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
19.0% / 20.0%
Volume
$35,139
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T–$1.75T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
18.4% / 18.5%
Volume
$34,083
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.75T–$2T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Volume
$15,896
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2T–$2.25T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
11.4% / 11.5%
Volume
$25,931
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.25T–$2.5T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
13.0% / 15.0%
Volume
$23,835
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.5T–$2.75T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
8.0% / 8.3%
Volume
$16,610
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.75T–$3T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
1.2% / 1.4%
Volume
$8,705
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $3T

Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
3.1% / 4.6%
Volume
$18,513
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.6% / 1.8%
Volume
$18,785
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Anthropic, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 03 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 10 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$2.08T
Difference from Rai estimate
+15.0%
Share of combined estimate
50.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$2.08TThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$2.16TMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $1T

100.0%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $5T

3.2%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that Anthropic reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$965B–$1T0.0%
$982.5B assigned$491M contribution
$1T–$1.1T0.0%
$1.05T assigned$0M contribution
$1.1T–$1.25T8.0%
$1.18T assigned$93.4B contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T15.5%
$1.38T assigned$213.1B contribution
$1.5T–$1.75T26.0%
$1.63T assigned$422.5B contribution
$1.75T–$2T10.0%
$1.88T assigned$187.5B contribution
$2T–$2.5T15.5%
$2.25T assigned$348.8B contribution
$2.5T–$3T9.5%
$2.75T assigned$261.2B contribution
$3T–$4T9.4%
$3.5T assigned$329B contribution
$4T–$5T2.9%
$4.5T assigned$130.5B contribution
$5T or higher3.2%
$5.5T assigned$176B contribution
Open threshold audit table
ThresholdSource quoteFittedWalletsProvider updated
$1T or higher100.0%100.0%411May 30, 2026, 1:16 PM EDT
$1.1T or higher100.0%100.0%419Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 PM EDT
$1.25T or higher92.0%92.0%430Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
$1.5T or higher76.5%76.5%502Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
$1.75T or higher50.5%50.5%478Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
$2T or higher40.5%40.5%465Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
$2.5T or higher25.0%25.0%419Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
$3T or higher15.5%15.5%487Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
$4T or higher6.1%6.1%253Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT
$5T or higher3.2%3.2%405Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

  1. 01

    Select market quotes

    Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold

    10 contracts
  2. 02

    Fit a monotone curve

    The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one

    Equal-weight isotonic fit
  3. 03

    Difference adjacent thresholds

    P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band

    $2.16T
  4. 04

    Translate the peak to current value

    Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39

    $2.08T

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 28, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak
10.0%
Market deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor
$965B
Upper-tail representative
$5.5T
Curve constraint
Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method
Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$723.8B lower floor

$2.16T

$965B lower floor

$2.16T

$5.5T upper tail

$2.16T

$8.25T upper tail

$2.25T

Source markets

Polymarket threshold contracts

PolymarketGamma and Data APIs · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
100.0% / 100.0%
Bid / ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Wallets / volume
411 / $111,979
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
May 30, 2026, 1:16 PM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
*

The provider record was last updated more than 24 hours before Rai fetched it.

View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.1T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?

Source / fitted
100.0% / 100.0%
Bid / ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Wallets / volume
419 / $125,020
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 PM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
*

The provider record was last updated more than 24 hours before Rai fetched it.

View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Source / fitted
92.0% / 92.0%
Bid / ask
91.0% / 93.0%
Wallets / volume
430 / $215,193
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
76.5% / 76.5%
Bid / ask
75.0% / 78.0%
Wallets / volume
502 / $147,459
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.75T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Source / fitted
50.5% / 50.5%
Bid / ask
50.0% / 51.0%
Wallets / volume
478 / $458,355
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
40.5% / 40.5%
Bid / ask
40.0% / 41.0%
Wallets / volume
465 / $489,805
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.5T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
25.0% / 25.0%
Bid / ask
24.0% / 26.0%
Wallets / volume
419 / $276,437
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$3T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
15.5% / 15.5%
Bid / ask
14.0% / 17.0%
Wallets / volume
487 / $586,337
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$4T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
6.1% / 6.1%
Bid / ask
5.6% / 6.6%
Wallets / volume
253 / $268,503
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$5T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
3.2% / 3.2%
Bid / ask
3.1% / 3.3%
Wallets / volume
405 / $72,159
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:10 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Anthropic, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.