Rai

Artificial intelligence

Anthropic

This estimate combines Polymarket markets about Anthropic’s possible IPO valuation and how high its valuation may reach by the deadline.

Estimated current valuation

$2.02T-6.39%1D

Rai combines 3 market-derived estimates into this current valuation.

Estimate range
*

This is the lowest-to-highest method result, not a confidence interval.

$1.69T–$2.33T
Estimates used
3
How combined
Different weights
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$2.02T
  2. 2027 IPO ladder-16.3%
    25.0% of combined estimate$1.69T
  3. 2027 higher-strike IPO-14.4%
    25.0% of combined estimate$1.73T
  4. Threshold curve+15.4%
    50.0% of combined estimate$2.33T

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
77
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Oct 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT
Realized volatility
20.6%
30D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Oct 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.06T$1.72T–$2.38T3
Oct 14, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.16T$1.71T–$2.56T3
Oct 13, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.17T$1.75T–$2.55T3
Oct 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.20T$1.77T–$2.58T3
Oct 11, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.20T$1.78T–$2.56T3
Oct 10, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.20T$1.76T–$2.56T3
Oct 9, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.21T$1.76T–$2.58T3
Oct 8, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.22T$1.75T–$2.58T3
Oct 7, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.21T$1.76T–$2.58T3
Oct 6, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.21T$1.75T–$2.57T3
Oct 5, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.19T$1.76T–$2.54T3
Oct 4, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.18T$1.74T–$2.54T3
Oct 3, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.17T$1.75T–$2.54T3
Oct 2, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.17T$1.74T–$2.53T3
Oct 1, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.17T$1.74T–$2.54T3
Sep 30, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.20T$1.74T–$2.57T3
Sep 29, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.16T$1.73T–$2.50T3
Sep 28, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.16T$1.76T–$2.49T3
Sep 27, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.16T$1.74T–$2.50T3
Sep 26, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.16T$1.74T–$2.50T3
Sep 25, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.16T$1.75T–$2.50T3
Sep 24, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.16T$1.75T–$2.49T3
Sep 23, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.15T$1.74T–$2.49T3
Sep 22, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.17T$1.74T–$2.53T3
Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.19T$1.74T–$2.55T3
Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.20T$1.73T–$2.58T3
Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.73T–$2.65T3
Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.23T$1.72T–$2.64T3
Sep 17, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.26T$1.71T–$2.69T3
Sep 16, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.27T$1.72T–$2.70T3
Sep 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.27T$1.72T–$2.70T3
Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.25T$1.74T–$2.67T3
Sep 13, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.28T$1.76T–$2.71T3
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.31T$1.75T–$2.75T3
Sep 11, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.29T$1.74T–$2.72T3
Sep 10, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.32T$1.75T–$2.76T3
Sep 9, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.31T$1.75T–$2.74T3
Sep 8, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.26T$1.73T–$2.65T3
Sep 7, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.23T$1.72T–$2.63T3
Sep 6, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.72T–$2.63T3
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.73T–$2.63T3
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.23T$1.72T–$2.62T3
Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.23T$1.72T–$2.63T3
Sep 2, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.72T–$2.63T3
Sep 1, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.70T–$2.64T3
Aug 31, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.70T–$2.65T3
Aug 30, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.26T$1.73T–$2.65T3
Aug 29, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.25T$1.72T–$2.64T3
Aug 28, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.25T$1.73T–$2.63T3
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.73T–$2.61T3
Aug 26, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.24T$1.71T–$2.61T3
Aug 25, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.22T$1.73T–$2.60T3
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.18T$1.68T–$2.57T3
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.19T$1.66T–$2.60T3
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.19T$1.65T–$2.60T3
Aug 21, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.15T$1.67T–$2.53T3
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.18T$1.65T–$2.61T3
Aug 19, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.19T$1.63T–$2.63T3
Aug 18, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.19T$1.65T–$2.63T3
Aug 17, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.22T$1.61T–$2.70T3
Aug 16, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.15T$1.61T–$2.56T3
Aug 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.10T$1.60T–$2.49T3
Aug 14, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$2.04T$1.56T–$2.43T3
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.96T$1.50T–$2.31T3
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.81T$1.44T–$2.09T3
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.80T$1.45T–$2.05T3
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.78T$1.46T–$2.01T3
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.77T$1.46T–$2.00T3
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.77T$1.45T–$1.99T3
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.77T$1.46T–$2.00T3
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.78T$1.42T–$2.03T3
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.77T$1.44T–$1.99T3
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$1.77T$1.44T–$1.97T3
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.75T$1.43T–$1.97T3
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.75T$1.39T–$1.98T3
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$1.76T$1.39T–$1.99T3
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$1.74T$1.40T–$1.96T3

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027

Polymarket · 2 source events · 11 outcomes

Method estimate$1.69T
Difference from Rai estimate
-16.3%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$1.69TPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.92TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.71TIPO branch discounted 1.21 years

Probability of IPO

97.6%By Dec 31, 2027

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $100B0.1%
Raw 0.1%$75B assigned$78M conditional contribution
$100B–$200B0.1%
Raw 0.1%$150B assigned$156M conditional contribution
$200B–$300B0.1%
Raw 0.1%$250B assigned$260M conditional contribution
$300B–$400B0.2%
Raw 0.1%$350B assigned$545M conditional contribution
$400B–$600B1.1%
Raw 1.1%$500B assigned$5.7B conditional contribution
$600B–$900B0.3%
Raw 0.3%$750B assigned$1.9B conditional contribution
$900B–$1.2T0.5%
Raw 0.5%$1.05T assigned$5.5B conditional contribution
$1.2T–$1.5T4.3%
Raw 4.2%$1.35T assigned$58.9B conditional contribution
$1.5T–$1.8T25.1%
Raw 24.8%$1.65T assigned$424.9B conditional contribution
Above $1.8T65.9%
Raw 65.0%$2.1T assigned$1.42T conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline2.4%
Raw 2.4%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $100B0.1%0.1%$75B$78M
$100B–$200B0.1%0.1%$150B$156M
$200B–$300B0.1%0.1%$250B$260M
$300B–$400B0.1%0.2%$350B$545M
$400B–$600B1.1%1.1%$500B$5.7B
$600B–$900B0.3%0.3%$750B$1.9B
$900B–$1.2T0.5%0.5%$1.05T$5.5B
$1.2T–$1.5T4.2%4.3%$1.35T$58.9B
$1.5T–$1.8T24.8%25.1%$1.65T$424.9B
Above $1.8T65.0%65.9%$2.1T$1.42T
No IPO by deadline2.4%2.4%N/A—
Probability total98.7%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 98.7%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 98.7%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.92T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.21

    $1.71T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $965B

    $1.69T

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 24, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2027
Lower open bracket
$75B
Upper open bracket
$2.1T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$965B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$1.79T

20.0% discount rate

$1.52T

$723.8B no-IPO scenario

$1.68T

$1.21T no-IPO scenario

$1.69T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Last trade

Below $100B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
— / 0.1%
Volume
$177,594
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Last trade

$100B–$200B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
— / 0.1%
Volume
$88,801
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Last trade

$200B–$300B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
— / 1.0%
Volume
$32,123
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$300B–$400B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.1% / 0.2%
Volume
$83,503
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$400B–$600B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.6% / 1.6%
Volume
$32,746
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$600B–$900B

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.3%
Volume
$28,523
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$900B–$1.2T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
0.3% / 0.7%
Volume
$29,452
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.2T–$1.5T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
1.6% / 6.8%
Volume
$36,925
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T–$1.8T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
18.4% / 31.2%
*

The spread is 12.8%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.

Volume
$82,660
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $1.8T

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
59.0% / 71.0%
*

The spread is 12.0%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.

Volume
$265,027
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Bid / ask
1.7% / 3.1%
Volume
$57,426
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Anthropic, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 02 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027 higher-strike series

Polymarket · 1 source event · 10 outcomes

Method estimate$1.73T
Difference from Rai estimate
-14.4%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$1.73TPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.97TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.75TIPO branch discounted 1.21 years

Probability of IPO

96.9%By Dec 31, 2027

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $1.25T3.8%
Raw 3.6%$1T assigned$39.7B conditional contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T6.2%
Raw 5.8%$1.38T assigned$88.7B conditional contribution
$1.5T–$1.75T18.3%
Raw 17.1%$1.63T assigned$306.4B conditional contribution
$1.75T–$2T35.3%
Raw 33.0%$1.88T assigned$682.2B conditional contribution
$2T–$2.25T15.1%
Raw 14.1%$2.13T assigned$331.5B conditional contribution
$2.25T–$2.5T7.5%
Raw 7.0%$2.38T assigned$183.3B conditional contribution
$2.5T–$2.75T4.4%
Raw 4.1%$2.63T assigned$118.7B conditional contribution
$2.75T–$3T1.7%
Raw 1.6%$2.88T assigned$50.7B conditional contribution
Above $3T4.6%
Raw 4.3%$3.5T assigned$165.9B conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline3.1%
Raw 2.9%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $1.25T3.6%3.8%$1T$39.7B
$1.25T–$1.5T5.8%6.2%$1.38T$88.7B
$1.5T–$1.75T17.1%18.3%$1.63T$306.4B
$1.75T–$2T33.0%35.3%$1.88T$682.2B
$2T–$2.25T14.1%15.1%$2.13T$331.5B
$2.25T–$2.5T7.0%7.5%$2.38T$183.3B
$2.5T–$2.75T4.1%4.4%$2.63T$118.7B
$2.75T–$3T1.6%1.7%$2.88T$50.7B
Above $3T4.3%4.6%$3.5T$165.9B
No IPO by deadline2.9%3.1%N/A—
Probability total93.6%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 93.6%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 93.6%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.97T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.21

    $1.75T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $965B

    $1.73T

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2027
Lower open bracket
$1T
Upper open bracket
$3.5T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$965B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$1.83T

20.0% discount rate

$1.56T

$723.8B no-IPO scenario

$1.72T

$1.21T no-IPO scenario

$1.74T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $1.25T

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
3.3% / 3.9%
Volume
$153,454
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T–$1.5T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
5.3% / 6.4%
Volume
$129,763
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T–$1.75T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
16.5% / 17.7%
Volume
$190,709
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.75T–$2T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
32.0% / 34.0%
Volume
$274,730
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2T–$2.25T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
14.1% / 14.2%
Volume
$350,037
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.25T–$2.5T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
6.0% / 8.0%
Volume
$264,021
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.5T–$2.75T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
2.7% / 5.5%
Volume
$130,481
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.75T–$3T

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
1.3% / 1.9%
Volume
$73,268
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $3T

Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
3.7% / 4.9%
Volume
$98,823
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
2.7% / 3.1%
Volume
$90,119
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Anthropic, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 03 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 10 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$2.33T
Difference from Rai estimate
+15.4%
Share of combined estimate
50.0%
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$2.33TThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$2.38TMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $1T

100.0%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $5T

3.7%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that Anthropic reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$965B–$1T0.0%
$982.5B assigned$491M contribution
$1T–$1.1T0.0%
$1.05T assigned$0M contribution
$1.1T–$1.25T0.0%
$1.18T assigned$0M contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T14.5%
$1.38T assigned$198.7B contribution
$1.5T–$1.75T23.5%
$1.63T assigned$381.9B contribution
$1.75T–$2T4.0%
$1.88T assigned$75B contribution
$2T–$2.5T27.0%
$2.25T assigned$607.5B contribution
$2.5T–$3T10.5%
$2.75T assigned$288.7B contribution
$3T–$4T13.6%
$3.5T assigned$476B contribution
$4T–$5T3.2%
$4.5T assigned$144B contribution
$5T or higher3.7%
$5.5T assigned$203.5B contribution
Open threshold audit table
ThresholdSource quoteFittedWalletsProvider updated
$1T or higher100.0%100.0%411May 30, 2026, 1:16 PM EDT
$1.1T or higher100.0%100.0%419Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 PM EDT
$1.25T or higher100.0%100.0%474Aug 28, 2026, 1:01 PM EDT
$1.5T or higher85.5%85.5%676Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT
$1.75T or higher62.0%62.0%695Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT
$2T or higher58.0%58.0%754Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT
$2.5T or higher31.0%31.0%737Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT
$3T or higher20.5%20.5%934Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT
$4T or higher6.9%6.9%478Oct 15, 2026, 7:45 PM EDT
$5T or higher3.7%3.7%605Oct 15, 2026, 7:45 PM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

  1. 01

    Select market quotes

    Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold

    10 contracts
  2. 02

    Fit a monotone curve

    The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one

    Equal-weight isotonic fit
  3. 03

    Difference adjacent thresholds

    P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band

    $2.38T
  4. 04

    Translate the peak to current value

    Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.21

    $2.33T

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 28, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak
10.0%
Market deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor
$965B
Upper-tail representative
$5.5T
Curve constraint
Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method
Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$723.8B lower floor

$2.38T

$965B lower floor

$2.38T

$5.5T upper tail

$2.38T

$8.25T upper tail

$2.48T

Source markets

Polymarket threshold contracts

PolymarketGamma and Data APIs · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
100.0% / 100.0%
Bid / ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Wallets / volume
411 / $111,979
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
May 30, 2026, 1:16 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
*

The provider record was last updated more than 24 hours before Rai fetched it.

View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.1T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?

Source / fitted
100.0% / 100.0%
Bid / ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Wallets / volume
419 / $125,020
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Jul 2, 2026, 1:01 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
*

The provider record was last updated more than 24 hours before Rai fetched it.

View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Source / fitted
100.0% / 100.0%
Bid / ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Wallets / volume
474 / $264,980
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 28, 2026, 1:01 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
*

The provider record was last updated more than 24 hours before Rai fetched it.

View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
85.5% / 85.5%
Bid / ask
84.0% / 87.0%
Wallets / volume
676 / $275,293
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.75T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Source / fitted
62.0% / 62.0%
Bid / ask
60.0% / 64.0%
Wallets / volume
695 / $714,040
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
58.0% / 58.0%
Bid / ask
57.0% / 59.0%
Wallets / volume
754 / $717,754
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.5T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
31.0% / 31.0%
Bid / ask
30.0% / 32.0%
Wallets / volume
737 / $459,842
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$3T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
20.5% / 20.5%
Bid / ask
20.0% / 21.0%
Wallets / volume
934 / $1,429,198
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$4T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
6.9% / 6.9%
Bid / ask
6.3% / 7.5%
Wallets / volume
478 / $908,508
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:45 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$5T or higher

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
3.7% / 3.7%
Bid / ask
3.6% / 3.8%
Wallets / volume
605 / $437,832
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 7:45 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Anthropic, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.