Rai

Consumer internet

ByteDance

This estimate uses Polymarket markets on how high ByteDance’s valuation may reach by December 31, 2026.

Estimated current valuation

$740.06B-0.01%1D

A market-derived estimate of what ByteDance may be worth today. The full calculation and assumptions are shown below.

Estimate range
$740.06B–$740.06B
Estimates used
1
How combined
Single estimate
Updated
Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$740.06B
  2. Threshold curve0.0%
    100.0% of combined estimate$740.06B

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
12
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT
Realized volatility
35.2%
11D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$739.94B$739.94B–$739.94B1
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$740.11B$740.11B–$740.11B1
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$738.96B$738.96B–$738.96B1
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$743.22B$743.22B–$743.22B1
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$735.32B$735.32B–$735.32B1
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$750.65B$750.65B–$750.65B1
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$741.43B$741.43B–$741.43B1
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$740.03B$740.03B–$740.03B1
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$772.96B$772.96B–$772.96B1
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$751.55B$751.55B–$751.55B1
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$754.60B$754.60B–$754.60B1
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$757.62B$757.62B–$757.62B1

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 7 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$740.06B
Difference from Rai estimate
0.0%
Share of combined estimate
100.0%
Updated
Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$740.06BThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$767.9BMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $650B

26.5%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $1.5T

7.5%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that ByteDance reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$550B–$650B73.5%
$600B assigned$441B contribution
$650B–$700B2.5%
$675B assigned$16.9B contribution
$700B–$800B5.0%
$750B assigned$37.5B contribution
$800B–$900B3.5%
$850B assigned$29.7B contribution
$900B–$1T2.0%
$950B assigned$19B contribution
$1T–$1.25T3.5%
$1.13T assigned$39.4B contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T2.5%
$1.38T assigned$34.4B contribution
$1.5T or higher7.5%
$2T assigned$150B contribution
Open threshold audit table
ThresholdSource quoteFittedWalletsProvider updated
$650B or higher26.5%26.5%40Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT
$700B or higher24.0%24.0%32Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT
$800B or higher19.0%19.0%44Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT
$900B or higher15.5%15.5%29Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT
$1.0T or higher13.5%13.5%39Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT
$1.25T or higher10.0%10.0%47Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT
$1.5T or higher7.5%7.5%42Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

  1. 01

    Select market quotes

    Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold

    7 contracts
  2. 02

    Fit a monotone curve

    The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one

    Equal-weight isotonic fit
  3. 03

    Difference adjacent thresholds

    P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band

    $767.9B
  4. 04

    Translate the peak to current value

    Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39

    $740.1B

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak
10.0%
Market deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor
$550B
Upper-tail representative
$2T
Curve constraint
Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method
Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$412.5B lower floor

$717.3B

$550B lower floor

$767.9B

$2T upper tail

$767.9B

$3T upper tail

$842.9B

Source markets

Polymarket threshold contracts

PolymarketGamma and Data APIs · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$650B or higher

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?

Source / fitted
26.5% / 26.5%
Bid / ask
11.0% / 42.0%
*

The spread is 31.0%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.

Wallets / volume
40 / $3,474
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$700B or higher

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by December 31?

Source / fitted
24.0% / 24.0%
Bid / ask
23.0% / 25.0%
Wallets / volume
32 / $6,437
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$800B or higher

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?

Source / fitted
19.0% / 19.0%
Bid / ask
17.0% / 21.0%
Wallets / volume
44 / $6,518
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$900B or higher

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?

Source / fitted
15.5% / 15.5%
Bid / ask
14.0% / 17.0%
Wallets / volume
29 / $2,868
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.0T or higher

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
13.5% / 13.5%
Bid / ask
12.0% / 15.0%
Wallets / volume
39 / $7,845
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T or higher

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Source / fitted
10.0% / 10.0%
Bid / ask
9.0% / 11.0%
Wallets / volume
47 / $11,176
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T or higher

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
7.5% / 7.5%
Bid / ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Wallets / volume
42 / $8,097
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 11, 2026, 10:49 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 10:56 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in ByteDance, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.