RaiMethod 01 · prediction market
Prediction-market valuation threshold curve
Polymarket · 6 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026
- Difference from Rai estimate
- 0.0%
- Share of combined estimate
- 100.0%
- Updated
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
Deadline-peak current equivalent
$12.40BThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridgeExpected maximum by deadline
$12.9BMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026Chance of at least $12.5B
16.0%Fitted cumulative probabilityChance of at least $25B
5.5%Open upper-tail probabilityImplied distribution
Cumulative threshold distribution
Each contract prices the chance that Kraken reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .
Open threshold audit table
| Threshold | Source quote | Fitted | Wallets | Provider updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.5B or higher | 16.0% | 16.0% | 108 | Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT |
| $15B or higher | 13.0% | 13.0% | 105 | Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT |
| $17.5B or higher | 8.0% | 8.0% | 96 | Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT |
| $20B or higher | 7.3% | 7.3% | 81 | Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT |
| $22.5B or higher | 6.5% | 6.5% | 59 | Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT |
| $25B or higher | 5.5% | 5.5% | 146 | Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT |
Calculation details
Threshold-curve calculation
The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.
- 016 contracts
Select market quotes
Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold
- 02Equal-weight isotonic fit
Fit a monotone curve
The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one
- 03$12.9B
Difference adjacent thresholds
P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band
- 04$12.4B
Translate the peak to current value
Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39
Assumptions
Lower- and upper-tail assumptions
The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.
Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.
- Expected annual growth to peak
- 10.0%
- Market deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Lower valuation floor
- $10B
- Upper-tail representative
- $30B
- Curve constraint
- Equal-weight non-increasing fit
- Probability method
- Single-source Polymarket curve
Sensitivity
Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity
These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.
$7.5B lower floor
$11.8B$10B lower floor
$12.9B$30B upper tail
$12.9B$45B upper tail
$13.7BSource markets
Polymarket threshold contracts
Polymarket$12.5B or higher
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
- Source / fitted
- 16.0% / 16.0%
- Bid / ask
- 13.0% / 19.0%
- Wallets / volume
- 108 / $15,146
*
These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.
- Provider / fetched
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
$15B or higher
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?
- Source / fitted
- 13.0% / 13.0%
- Bid / ask
- 5.0% / 21.0%
*
The spread is 16.0%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.
- Wallets / volume
- 105 / $17,391
*
These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.
- Provider / fetched
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
$17.5B or higher
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?
- Source / fitted
- 8.0% / 8.0%
- Bid / ask
- 7.0% / 9.0%
- Wallets / volume
- 96 / $17,518
*
These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.
- Provider / fetched
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
$20B or higher
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?
- Source / fitted
- 7.3% / 7.3%
- Bid / ask
- 5.7% / 8.9%
- Wallets / volume
- 81 / $10,657
*
These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.
- Provider / fetched
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
$22.5B or higher
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?
- Source / fitted
- 6.5% / 6.5%
- Bid / ask
- 6.0% / 7.0%
- Wallets / volume
- 59 / $5,063
*
These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.
- Provider / fetched
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
$25B or higher
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?
- Source / fitted
- 5.5% / 5.5%
- Bid / ask
- 5.0% / 6.1%
- Wallets / volume
- 146 / $14,083
*
These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.
- Provider / fetched
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
Important limitations
Scope and limitations
The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.
This estimate is not an ownership interest in Kraken, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.