Rai

Artificial intelligence

OpenAI

This estimate combines Polymarket markets about OpenAI’s possible IPO valuation and how high its valuation may reach by the deadline.

Estimated current valuation

$1.23T-2.19%1D

Rai combines 3 market-derived estimates into this current valuation.

Estimate range
*

This is the lowest-to-highest method result, not a confidence interval.

$860.24B–$1.43T
Estimates used
3
How combined
Different weights
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$1.23T
  2. 2027 IPO ladder-0.5%
    25.0% of combined estimate$1.23T
  3. 2026 IPO ladder-30.3%
    25.0% of combined estimate$860.24B
  4. Threshold curve+15.4%
    50.0% of combined estimate$1.43T

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
77
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Oct 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT
Realized volatility
16.0%
30D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Oct 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.24T$860.78B–$1.43T3
Oct 14, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$861.54B–$1.45T3
Oct 13, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$861.05B–$1.46T3
Oct 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$861.53B–$1.46T3
Oct 11, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$861.27B–$1.46T3
Oct 10, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$863.22B–$1.45T3
Oct 9, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$863.17B–$1.45T3
Oct 8, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$863.71B–$1.49T3
Oct 7, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.29T$862.01B–$1.51T3
Oct 6, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.29T$862.94B–$1.51T3
Oct 5, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$862.47B–$1.50T3
Oct 4, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$859.41B–$1.49T3
Oct 3, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$857.81B–$1.48T3
Oct 2, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$859.18B–$1.49T3
Oct 1, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$858.99B–$1.50T3
Sep 30, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$860.24B–$1.47T3
Sep 29, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$859.76B–$1.45T3
Sep 28, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$859.51B–$1.45T3
Sep 27, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$859.42B–$1.45T3
Sep 26, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$861.01B–$1.46T3
Sep 25, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$861.06B–$1.47T3
Sep 24, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$861.05B–$1.45T3
Sep 23, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$861.18B–$1.44T3
Sep 22, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$861.67B–$1.44T3
Sep 21, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$860.94B–$1.45T3
Sep 20, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.27T$860.93B–$1.45T3
Sep 19, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$861.17B–$1.45T3
Sep 18, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$861.22B–$1.43T3
Sep 17, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.28T$861.28B–$1.44T3
Sep 16, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$860.27B–$1.40T3
Sep 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.23T$859.12B–$1.42T3
Sep 14, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.24T$855.77B–$1.40T3
Sep 13, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.29T$860.07B–$1.43T3
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.36T$880.21B–$1.56T3
Sep 11, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.36T$878.33B–$1.56T3
Sep 10, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.36T$878.28B–$1.56T3
Sep 9, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.36T$884.34B–$1.55T3
Sep 8, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.34T$882.37B–$1.54T3
Sep 7, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.31T$882.30B–$1.50T3
Sep 6, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.32T$882.81B–$1.52T3
Sep 5, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.31T$888.83B–$1.50T3
Sep 4, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.34T$894.47B–$1.56T3
Sep 3, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.33T$895.39B–$1.55T3
Sep 2, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.30T$901.25B–$1.51T3
Sep 1, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.31T$901.21B–$1.51T3
Aug 31, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.24T$925.13B–$1.39T3
Aug 30, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.25T$919.83B–$1.40T3
Aug 29, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.25T$920.15B–$1.41T3
Aug 28, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.25T$918.48B–$1.41T3
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.25T$918.02B–$1.41T3
Aug 26, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.26T$919.40B–$1.43T3
Aug 25, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.25T$919.72B–$1.41T3
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.24T$910.22B–$1.42T3
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.24T$916.13B–$1.42T3
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.24T$913.50B–$1.42T3
Aug 21, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.23T$917.19B–$1.40T3
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.21T$916.13B–$1.36T3
Aug 19, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.21T$900.00B–$1.36T3
Aug 18, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.21T$900.44B–$1.37T3
Aug 17, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.21T$898.16B–$1.37T3
Aug 16, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.22T$912.26B–$1.37T3
Aug 15, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.20T$918.51B–$1.36T3
Aug 14, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.20T$898.27B–$1.37T3
Aug 13, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.20T$904.01B–$1.36T3
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.20T$903.81B–$1.37T3
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$903.77B–$1.38T3
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$903.72B–$1.39T3
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.21T$902.52B–$1.40T3
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$902.87B–$1.39T3
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$901.58B–$1.38T3
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.20T$903.07B–$1.37T3
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.19T$905.84B–$1.36T3
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$1.17T$905.44B–$1.32T3
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.16T$891.76B–$1.31T3
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.18T$891.73B–$1.36T3
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$1.19T$891.63B–$1.37T3
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$1.19T$891.59B–$1.36T3

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027

Polymarket · 1 source event · 7 outcomes

Method estimate$1.23T
Difference from Rai estimate
-0.5%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$1.23TPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.53TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.36TIPO branch discounted 1.21 years

Probability of IPO

73.5%By Dec 31, 2027

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $500B2.7%
Raw 2.5%$400B assigned$14.7B conditional contribution
$500B–$750B1.9%
Raw 1.8%$625B assigned$16.5B conditional contribution
$750B–$1T2.9%
Raw 2.6%$875B assigned$34B conditional contribution
$1T–$1.25T5.0%
Raw 4.6%$1.13T assigned$75.8B conditional contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T12.4%
Raw 11.5%$1.38T assigned$231.7B conditional contribution
Above $1.5T48.7%
Raw 45.2%$1.75T assigned$1.16T conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline26.5%
Raw 24.6%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $500B2.5%2.7%$400B$14.7B
$500B–$750B1.8%1.9%$625B$16.5B
$750B–$1T2.6%2.9%$875B$34B
$1T–$1.25T4.6%5.0%$1.13T$75.8B
$1.25T–$1.5T11.5%12.4%$1.38T$231.7B
Above $1.5T45.2%48.7%$1.75T$1.16T
No IPO by deadline24.6%26.5%N/A—
Probability total92.9%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 92.9%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 92.9%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.53T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.21

    $1.36T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $852B

    $1.23T

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 24, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2027
Lower open bracket
$400B
Upper open bracket
$1.75T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$852B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$1.29T

20.0% discount rate

$1.13T

$639B no-IPO scenario

$1.17T

$1.06T no-IPO scenario

$1.29T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $500B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
1.9% / 3.1%
Volume
$42,897
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$500B–$750B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
1.7% / 1.9%
Volume
$30,171
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$750B–$1T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
2.6% / 2.7%
Volume
$68,782
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T–$1.25T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
4.2% / 5.0%
Volume
$64,840
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T–$1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Volume
$56,555
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:17 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
43.7% / 46.7%
Volume
$130,644
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
23.1% / 26.2%
Volume
$93,306
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in OpenAI, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 02 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2026

Polymarket · 1 source event · 7 outcomes

Method estimate$860.24B
Difference from Rai estimate
-30.3%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$860.24BPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.14TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.12TIPO branch discounted 0.21 years

Probability of IPO

3.1%By Dec 31, 2026

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $500B0.5%
Raw 0.5%$400B assigned$65.6B conditional contribution
$500B–$750B0.4%
Raw 0.4%$625B assigned$82B conditional contribution
$750B–$1T0.5%
Raw 0.5%$875B assigned$129.1B conditional contribution
$1T–$1.25T0.4%
Raw 0.4%$1.13T assigned$129.1B conditional contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T0.3%
Raw 0.3%$1.38T assigned$135.2B conditional contribution
Above $1.5T1.1%
Raw 1.0%$1.75T assigned$602.5B conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline96.9%
Raw 96.5%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $500B0.5%0.5%$400B$65.6B
$500B–$750B0.4%0.4%$625B$82B
$750B–$1T0.5%0.5%$875B$129.1B
$1T–$1.25T0.4%0.4%$1.13T$129.1B
$1.25T–$1.5T0.3%0.3%$1.38T$135.2B
Above $1.5T1.0%1.1%$1.75T$602.5B
No IPO by deadline96.5%96.9%N/A—
Probability total99.5%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 99.5%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 99.5%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.14T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.21

    $1.12T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $852B

    $860.2B

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2026
Lower open bracket
$400B
Upper open bracket
$1.75T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$852B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$860.6B

20.0% discount rate

$859.6B

$639B no-IPO scenario

$653.8B

$1.06T no-IPO scenario

$1.07T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $500B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.1% / 0.9%
Volume
$322,991
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:11 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$500B–$750B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.6%
Volume
$176,255
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:13 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$750B–$1T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.7%
Volume
$187,209
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:05 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T–$1.25T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.3% / 0.4%
Volume
$227,982
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:13 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T–$1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.4%
Volume
$535,777
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.8% / 1.3%
Volume
$163,305
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:05 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Bid / ask
96.1% / 96.9%
Volume
$822,906
Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:13 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in OpenAI, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 03 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 10 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$1.43T
Difference from Rai estimate
+15.4%
Share of combined estimate
50.0%
Updated
Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$1.43TThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$1.45TMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $900B

100.0%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $5T

1.8%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that OpenAI reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$852B–$900B0.0%
$876B assigned$438M contribution
$900B–$1T0.0%
$950B assigned$0M contribution
$1T–$1.25T36.5%
$1.13T assigned$410.1B contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T42.0%
$1.38T assigned$577.5B contribution
$1.5T–$1.75T15.4%
$1.63T assigned$250.7B contribution
$1.75T–$2T0.0%
$1.88T assigned$0M contribution
$2T–$2.5T1.0%
$2.25T assigned$21.9B contribution
$2.5T–$3T3.1%
$2.75T assigned$85.9B contribution
$3T–$4T0.0%
$3.5T assigned$0M contribution
$4T–$5T0.1%
$4.5T assigned$5.6B contribution
$5T or higher1.8%
$5.5T assigned$101.8B contribution
Open threshold audit table
ThresholdSource quoteFittedWalletsProvider updated
$900B or higher100.0%100.0%484Aug 26, 2026, 2:11 PM EDT
$1T or higher100.0%100.0%464Oct 6, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT
$1.25T or higher63.5%63.5%434Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT
$1.5T or higher21.5%21.5%413Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT
$1.75T or higher5.5%6.1%380Oct 15, 2026, 6:13 PM EDT
$2T or higher6.7%6.1%479Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT
$2.5T or higher5.1%5.1%204Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT
$3T or higher1.1%2.0%153Oct 15, 2026, 5:05 PM EDT
$4T or higher2.8%2.0%117Oct 15, 2026, 6:11 PM EDT
$5T or higher1.8%1.8%200Oct 15, 2026, 6:07 PM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

  1. 01

    Select market quotes

    Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold

    10 contracts
  2. 02

    Fit a monotone curve

    The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one

    Equal-weight isotonic fit
  3. 03

    Difference adjacent thresholds

    P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band

    $1.45T
  4. 04

    Translate the peak to current value

    Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.21

    $1.43T

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 28, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak
10.0%
Market deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor
$852B
Upper-tail representative
$5.5T
Curve constraint
Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method
Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$639B lower floor

$1.45T

$852B lower floor

$1.45T

$5.5T upper tail

$1.45T

$8.25T upper tail

$1.5T

Source markets

Polymarket threshold contracts

PolymarketGamma and Data APIs · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$900B or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?

Source / fitted
100.0% / 100.0%
Bid / ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Wallets / volume
484 / $118,715
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 26, 2026, 2:11 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
*

The provider record was last updated more than 24 hours before Rai fetched it.

View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
100.0% / 100.0%
Bid / ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Wallets / volume
464 / $138,909
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 6, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
*

The provider record was last updated more than 24 hours before Rai fetched it.

View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Source / fitted
63.5% / 63.5%
Bid / ask
63.0% / 64.0%
Wallets / volume
434 / $118,462
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
21.5% / 21.5%
Bid / ask
21.0% / 22.0%
Wallets / volume
413 / $117,624
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.75T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Source / fitted
5.5% / 6.1%
*

Rai adjusted this quote to preserve a non-increasing threshold curve.

Bid / ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Wallets / volume
380 / $88,715
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:13 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
6.7% / 6.1%
*

Rai adjusted this quote to preserve a non-increasing threshold curve.

Bid / ask
6.1% / 7.2%
Wallets / volume
479 / $151,350
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.5T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
5.1% / 5.1%
Bid / ask
5.0% / 5.2%
Wallets / volume
204 / $58,018
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$3T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
1.1% / 2.0%
*

Rai adjusted this quote to preserve a non-increasing threshold curve.

Bid / ask
0.5% / 1.7%
Wallets / volume
153 / $33,624
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 5:05 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$4T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
2.8% / 2.0%
*

Rai adjusted this quote to preserve a non-increasing threshold curve.

Bid / ask
2.6% / 3.1%
Wallets / volume
117 / $23,780
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:11 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$5T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
1.8% / 1.8%
Bid / ask
0.6% / 3.1%
Wallets / volume
200 / $14,856
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Oct 15, 2026, 6:07 PM EDT / Oct 15, 2026, 6:19 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in OpenAI, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.