Rai

Artificial intelligence

OpenAI

This estimate combines Polymarket markets about OpenAI’s possible IPO valuation and how high its valuation may reach by the deadline.

Estimated current valuation

$1.20T-0.29%1D

Rai combines 3 market-derived estimates into this current valuation.

Estimate range
*

This is the lowest-to-highest method result, not a confidence interval.

$903.82B–$1.37T
Estimates used
3
How combined
Different weights
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$1.20T
  2. 2027 IPO ladder-4.0%
    25.0% of combined estimate$1.15T
  3. 2026 IPO ladder-24.7%
    25.0% of combined estimate$903.82B
  4. Threshold curve+14.3%
    50.0% of combined estimate$1.37T

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
13
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT
Realized volatility
17.4%
12D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$1.20T$903.81B–$1.37T3
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$903.77B–$1.38T3
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$903.72B–$1.39T3
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.21T$902.52B–$1.40T3
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$902.87B–$1.39T3
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$1.20T$901.58B–$1.38T3
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.20T$903.07B–$1.37T3
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$1.19T$905.84B–$1.36T3
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$1.17T$905.44B–$1.32T3
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.16T$891.76B–$1.31T3
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$1.18T$891.73B–$1.36T3
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$1.19T$891.63B–$1.37T3
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$1.19T$891.59B–$1.36T3

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027

Polymarket · 1 source event · 7 outcomes

Method estimate$1.15T
Difference from Rai estimate
-4.0%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$1.15TPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.35TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.19TIPO branch discounted 1.39 years

Probability of IPO

90.1%By Dec 31, 2027

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $500B0.8%
Raw 0.8%$400B assigned$3.5B conditional contribution
$500B–$750B3.4%
Raw 3.3%$625B assigned$23.9B conditional contribution
$750B–$1T12.0%
Raw 11.5%$875B assigned$116.5B conditional contribution
$1T–$1.25T21.6%
Raw 20.7%$1.13T assigned$269.7B conditional contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T18.3%
Raw 17.5%$1.38T assigned$278.7B conditional contribution
Above $1.5T34.0%
Raw 32.6%$1.75T assigned$660.7B conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline9.9%
Raw 9.5%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $500B0.8%0.8%$400B$3.5B
$500B–$750B3.3%3.4%$625B$23.9B
$750B–$1T11.5%12.0%$875B$116.5B
$1T–$1.25T20.7%21.6%$1.13T$269.7B
$1.25T–$1.5T17.5%18.3%$1.38T$278.7B
Above $1.5T32.6%34.0%$1.75T$660.7B
No IPO by deadline9.5%9.9%N/A—
Probability total95.9%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 95.9%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 95.9%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.35T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.39

    $1.19T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $852B

    $1.15T

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 24, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2027
Lower open bracket
$400B
Upper open bracket
$1.75T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$852B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$1.22T

20.0% discount rate

$1.03T

$639B no-IPO scenario

$1.13T

$1.06T no-IPO scenario

$1.17T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $500B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
0.7% / 0.8%
Volume
$6,079
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$500B–$750B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
3.2% / 3.4%
Volume
$8,096
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$750B–$1T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Volume
$8,975
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T–$1.25T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
19.9% / 21.5%
Volume
$13,974
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T–$1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Volume
$7,763
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
32.2% / 33.0%
Volume
$20,040
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Volume
$19,231
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:16 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in OpenAI, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 02 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2026

Polymarket · 1 source event · 7 outcomes

Method estimate$903.82B
Difference from Rai estimate
-24.7%
Share of combined estimate
25.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$903.82BPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$1.24TAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$1.19TIPO branch discounted 0.39 years

Probability of IPO

15.2%By Dec 31, 2026

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $500B0.6%
Raw 0.5%$400B assigned$14.6B conditional contribution
$500B–$750B0.3%
Raw 0.3%$625B assigned$10.3B conditional contribution
$750B–$1T4.5%
Raw 4.5%$875B assigned$257.9B conditional contribution
$1T–$1.25T3.5%
Raw 3.5%$1.13T assigned$260.8B conditional contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T1.7%
Raw 1.7%$1.38T assigned$150.2B conditional contribution
Above $1.5T4.7%
Raw 4.7%$1.75T assigned$544.7B conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline84.8%
Raw 84.5%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $500B0.5%0.6%$400B$14.6B
$500B–$750B0.3%0.3%$625B$10.3B
$750B–$1T4.5%4.5%$875B$257.9B
$1T–$1.25T3.5%3.5%$1.13T$260.8B
$1.25T–$1.5T1.7%1.7%$1.38T$150.2B
Above $1.5T4.7%4.7%$1.75T$544.7B
No IPO by deadline84.5%84.8%N/A—
Probability total99.6%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 99.6%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 99.6%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $1.24T
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39

    $1.19T
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $852B

    $903.8B

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2026
Lower open bracket
$400B
Upper open bracket
$1.75T
Current no-IPO scenario value
$852B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$907.1B

20.0% discount rate

$897.8B

$639B no-IPO scenario

$723.1B

$1.06T no-IPO scenario

$1.08T

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $500B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.9%
Volume
$304,272
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$500B–$750B

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.2% / 0.3%
Volume
$166,509
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$750B–$1T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
3.7% / 5.2%
Volume
$173,686
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T–$1.25T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
2.7% / 4.3%
Volume
$216,877
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T–$1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
0.3% / 3.0%
Volume
$524,734
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $1.5T

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
3.3% / 6.1%
Volume
$150,439
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Bid / ask
84.0% / 85.0%
Volume
$430,725
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in OpenAI, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 03 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 10 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$1.37T
Difference from Rai estimate
+14.3%
Share of combined estimate
50.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$1.37TThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$1.42TMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $900B

84.0%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $5T

2.7%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that OpenAI reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$852B–$900B16.0%
$876B assigned$140.2B contribution
$900B–$1T20.5%
$950B assigned$194.7B contribution
$1T–$1.25T26.0%
$1.13T assigned$292.5B contribution
$1.25T–$1.5T14.0%
$1.38T assigned$192.5B contribution
$1.5T–$1.75T6.0%
$1.63T assigned$97.5B contribution
$1.75T–$2T6.5%
$1.88T assigned$121.9B contribution
$2T–$2.5T3.0%
$2.25T assigned$67.5B contribution
$2.5T–$3T2.5%
$2.75T assigned$68.8B contribution
$3T–$4T2.6%
$3.5T assigned$91B contribution
$4T–$5T0.2%
$4.5T assigned$11.2B contribution
$5T or higher2.7%
$5.5T assigned$145.8B contribution
Open threshold audit table
ThresholdSource quoteFittedWalletsProvider updated
$900B or higher84.0%84.0%462Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$1T or higher63.5%63.5%378Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$1.25T or higher37.5%37.5%321Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$1.5T or higher23.5%23.5%317Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$1.75T or higher17.5%17.5%329Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$2T or higher11.0%11.0%434Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$2.5T or higher8.0%8.0%178Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$3T or higher5.5%5.5%123Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$4T or higher2.9%2.9%110Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT
$5T or higher2.7%2.7%186Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

  1. 01

    Select market quotes

    Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold

    10 contracts
  2. 02

    Fit a monotone curve

    The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one

    Equal-weight isotonic fit
  3. 03

    Difference adjacent thresholds

    P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band

    $1.42T
  4. 04

    Translate the peak to current value

    Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39

    $1.37T

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 28, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak
10.0%
Market deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor
$852B
Upper-tail representative
$5.5T
Curve constraint
Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method
Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$639B lower floor

$1.41T

$852B lower floor

$1.42T

$5.5T upper tail

$1.42T

$8.25T upper tail

$1.5T

Source markets

Polymarket threshold contracts

PolymarketGamma and Data APIs · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$900B or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?

Source / fitted
84.0% / 84.0%
Bid / ask
83.0% / 85.0%
Wallets / volume
462 / $111,231
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
63.5% / 63.5%
Bid / ask
61.0% / 66.0%
Wallets / volume
378 / $97,207
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.25T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?

Source / fitted
37.5% / 37.5%
Bid / ask
36.0% / 39.0%
Wallets / volume
321 / $74,075
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.5T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
23.5% / 23.5%
Bid / ask
23.0% / 24.0%
Wallets / volume
317 / $82,456
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$1.75T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?

Source / fitted
17.5% / 17.5%
Bid / ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Wallets / volume
329 / $63,883
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
11.0% / 11.0%
Bid / ask
10.0% / 12.0%
Wallets / volume
434 / $106,478
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$2.5T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Source / fitted
8.0% / 8.0%
Bid / ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Wallets / volume
178 / $51,229
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$3T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
5.5% / 5.5%
Bid / ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Wallets / volume
123 / $26,833
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$4T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
2.9% / 2.9%
Bid / ask
2.3% / 3.5%
Wallets / volume
110 / $21,815
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$5T or higher

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

Source / fitted
2.7% / 2.7%
Bid / ask
2.0% / 3.3%
Wallets / volume
186 / $13,255
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in OpenAI, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.