Rai

Health technology

Oura

This estimate uses Polymarket probabilities for Oura’s possible IPO valuation in 2026.

Estimated current valuation

$13.55B-0.05%1D

A market-derived estimate of what Oura may be worth today. The full calculation and assumptions are shown below.

Estimate range
$13.55B–$13.55B
Estimates used
1
How combined
Single estimate
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$13.55B
  2. 2026 IPO ladder0.0%
    100.0% of combined estimate$13.55B

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
13
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT
Realized volatility
10.0%
12D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$13.54B$13.54B–$13.54B1
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$13.55B$13.55B–$13.55B1
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$13.55B$13.55B–$13.55B1
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$13.64B$13.64B–$13.64B1
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$13.46B$13.46B–$13.46B1
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$13.49B$13.49B–$13.49B1
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$13.58B$13.58B–$13.58B1
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$13.58B$13.58B–$13.58B1
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$13.53B$13.53B–$13.53B1
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$13.52B$13.52B–$13.52B1
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$13.50B$13.50B–$13.50B1
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$13.50B$13.50B–$13.50B1
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$13.50B$13.50B–$13.50B1

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2026

Polymarket · 1 source event · 8 outcomes

Method estimate$13.55B
Difference from Rai estimate
0.0%
Share of combined estimate
100.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT

Rai current valuation

$13.55BSingle-method estimate · IPO-cap current equivalent

Conditional IPO valuation

$14.1BAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$13.6BIPO branch discounted 0.39 years

Probability of IPO

96.6%By Dec 31, 2026

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $7.5B11.3%
Raw 11.5%$5B assigned$587M conditional contribution
$7.5B–$10B12.3%
Raw 12.5%$8.8B assigned$1.1B conditional contribution
$10B–$12.5B14.8%
Raw 15.0%$11.3B assigned$1.7B conditional contribution
$12.5B–$15B16.3%
Raw 16.5%$13.8B assigned$2.3B conditional contribution
$15B–$17.5B12.3%
Raw 12.5%$16.3B assigned$2.1B conditional contribution
$17.5B–$20B14.3%
Raw 14.5%$18.8B assigned$2.8B conditional contribution
Above $20B15.3%
Raw 15.5%$22.5B assigned$3.6B conditional contribution
No IPO by deadline3.4%
Raw 3.5%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting
Open audit table
OutcomeRawNormalizedAssigned valueContribution
Below $7.5B11.5%11.3%$5B$587M
$7.5B–$10B12.5%12.3%$8.8B$1.1B
$10B–$12.5B15.0%14.8%$11.3B$1.7B
$12.5B–$15B16.5%16.3%$13.8B$2.3B
$15B–$17.5B12.5%12.3%$16.3B$2.1B
$17.5B–$20B14.5%14.3%$18.8B$2.8B
Above $20B15.5%15.3%$22.5B$3.6B
No IPO by deadline3.5%3.4%N/A—
Probability total101.5%100.0%——
Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 101.5%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

  1. 01

    Normalize the ladder

    Each raw probability ÷ 101.5%

    100.0%
  2. 02

    Weight IPO outcomes

    Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value

    $14.1B
  3. 03

    Discount the future IPO branch

    IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39

    $13.6B
  4. 04

    Mix current-equivalent branches

    IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $11B

    $13.5B

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 25, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate
10.0%
Expected valuation date
Dec 31, 2026
Lower open bracket
$5B
Upper open bracket
$22.5B
Current no-IPO scenario value
$11B
Probability method
Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$13.8B

20.0% discount rate

$13.1B

$8.3B no-IPO scenario

$13.5B

$13.8B no-IPO scenario

$13.6B

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $7.5B

Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Volume
$16,567
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$7.5B–$10B

Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Volume
$26,553
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$10B–$12.5B

Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
14.0% / 16.0%
Volume
$21,741
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$12.5B–$15B

Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
16.0% / 17.0%
Volume
$37,707
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$15B–$17.5B

Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Volume
$13,202
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$17.5B–$20B

Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
14.0% / 15.0%
Volume
$14,175
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $20B

Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask
15.0% / 16.0%
Volume
$15,874
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?

Bid / ask
2.9% / 4.0%
Volume
$4,498
Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:17 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:22 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Oura, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.