RaiMethod 01 · prediction market
Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027
Polymarket · 1 source event · 8 outcomes
- Difference from Rai estimate
- +5.5%
- Share of combined estimate
- 50.0%
- Updated
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
IPO-cap current equivalent
$28.70BPublic market cap based on outstanding sharesConditional IPO valuation
$52BAssuming an IPO by the deadlineDiscounted IPO scenario
$46.4BIPO branch discounted 1.21 yearsProbability of IPO
33.0%By Dec 31, 2027Probability distribution
Normalized market probabilities
The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.
Open audit table
| Outcome | Raw | Normalized | Assigned value | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below $20B | 7.6% | 7.7% | $15B | $3.5B |
| $20B–$30B | 4.1% | 4.2% | $25B | $3.2B |
| $30B–$40B | 3.6% | 3.6% | $35B | $3.8B |
| $40B–$50B | 2.4% | 2.4% | $45B | $3.3B |
| $50B–$75B | 7.0% | 7.1% | $62.5B | $13.4B |
| $75B–$100B | 4.7% | 4.7% | $87.5B | $12.5B |
| Above $100B | 3.2% | 3.2% | $125B | $12.3B |
| No IPO by deadline | 66.0% | 67.0% | N/A | — |
| Probability total | 98.5% | 100.0% | — | — |
Why Rai normalizes the raw total
These independently traded market prices add up to 98.5%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.
This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.
Calculation details
IPO-ladder calculation
All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.
- 01100.0%
Normalize the ladder
Each raw probability ÷ 98.5%
- 02$52B
Weight IPO outcomes
Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value
- 03$46.4B
Discount the future IPO branch
IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.21
- 04$28.7B
Mix current-equivalent branches
IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $20B
Assumptions
Configured valuation assumptions
Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.
Assumptions as of Jul 24, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.
- Annual discount rate
- 10.0%
- Expected valuation date
- Dec 31, 2027
- Lower open bracket
- $15B
- Upper open bracket
- $125B
- Current no-IPO scenario value
- $20B
- Probability method
- Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade
Sensitivity
One-variable sensitivity analysis
Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.
5.0% discount rate
$29.6B20.0% discount rate
$27.2B$15B no-IPO scenario
$25.3B$25B no-IPO scenario
$32BSource markets
Polymarket source quotes
PolymarketBelow $20B
Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day?
- Bid / ask
- 7.4% / 7.8%
- Volume
- $5,069
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:44 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
$20B–$30B
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?
- Bid / ask
- 3.7% / 4.6%
- Volume
- $8,144
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:46 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
$30B–$40B
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?
- Bid / ask
- 3.2% / 3.9%
- Volume
- $5,254
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:44 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
$40B–$50B
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?
- Bid / ask
- 0.9% / 3.9%
- Volume
- $4,666
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:44 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
$50B–$75B
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?
- Bid / ask
- 6.9% / 7.0%
- Volume
- $7,100
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:44 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
$75B–$100B
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?
- Bid / ask
- 3.9% / 5.4%
- Volume
- $4,572
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:46 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
Above $100B
Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?
- Bid / ask
- 2.7% / 3.7%
- Volume
- $5,655
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:44 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
No IPO by deadline
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?
- Bid / ask
- 64.0% / 68.0%
- Volume
- $109,316
- Provider / fetched
- Oct 14, 2026, 4:44 PM EDT / Oct 14, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
Important limitations
Scope and limitations
Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.
This estimate is not an ownership interest in Perplexity, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.