Artificial intelligence

Perplexity

This estimate combines Polymarket markets about Perplexity’s possible IPO valuation and how high its valuation may reach by the deadline.

Estimated current valuation

$27.28B-1.52%1D

Rai combines 2 market-derived estimates into this current valuation.

Estimate range * This is the lowest-to-highest method result, not a confidence interval.: $22.94B–$31.63B
Estimates used: 2
How combined: Equal weighting
Updated: Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

Rai estimateCombined current valuation
Headline estimate$27.28B
2027 IPO ladder+15.9%
50.0% of combined estimate$31.63B
Threshold curve-15.9%
50.0% of combined estimate$22.94B

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations: 12
First recorded: Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded: Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT
Realized volatility: 32.2%

Loading interactive valuation chart…

How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values

Observed	Rai estimate	Method range	Methods
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT	$27.27B	$22.80B–$31.74B	2
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT	$27.70B	$23.29B–$32.12B	2
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT	$27.30B	$22.78B–$31.81B	2
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT	$28.69B	$23.91B–$33.47B	2
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT	$28.87B	$24.16B–$33.57B	2
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT	$28.61B	$23.91B–$33.31B	2
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT	$28.72B	$23.96B–$33.48B	2
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT	$28.79B	$23.97B–$33.61B	2
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT	$28.84B	$24.04B–$33.64B	2
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT	$28.82B	$24.00B–$33.63B	2
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT	$28.69B	$24.30B–$33.08B	2
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT	$28.78B	$24.48B–$33.08B	2

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market IPO ladder — 2027

Polymarket · 1 source event · 8 outcomes

Method estimate$31.63B

Difference from Rai estimate: +15.9%
Share of combined estimate: 50.0%
Updated: Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

IPO-cap current equivalent

$31.63BPublic market cap based on outstanding shares

Conditional IPO valuation

$56.6BAssuming an IPO by the deadline

Discounted IPO scenario

$49.6BIPO branch discounted 1.39 years

Probability of IPO

39.3%By Dec 31, 2027

Probability distribution

Normalized market probabilities

The chart shows the probability Rai uses for each possible outcome. Source values and adjustment details are in the audit table.

Below $20B6.2%

Raw 6.7%$15B assigned$2.3B conditional contribution

$20B–$30B5.8%

Raw 6.3%$25B assigned$3.7B conditional contribution

$30B–$40B4.5%

Raw 4.9%$35B assigned$4B conditional contribution

$40B–$50B3.8%

Raw 4.1%$45B assigned$4.3B conditional contribution

$50B–$75B7.1%

Raw 7.7%$62.5B assigned$11.3B conditional contribution

$75B–$100B7.4%

Raw 8.0%$87.5B assigned$16.4B conditional contribution

Above $100B4.5%

Raw 4.9%$125B assigned$14.4B conditional contribution

No IPO by deadline60.7%

Raw 65.5%Current scenario valueMixed after IPO discounting

Open audit table

Outcome	Raw	Normalized	Assigned value	Contribution
Below $20B	6.7%	6.2%	$15B	$2.3B
$20B–$30B	6.3%	5.8%	$25B	$3.7B
$30B–$40B	4.9%	4.5%	$35B	$4B
$40B–$50B	4.1%	3.8%	$45B	$4.3B
$50B–$75B	7.7%	7.1%	$62.5B	$11.3B
$75B–$100B	8.0%	7.4%	$87.5B	$16.4B
Above $100B	4.9%	4.5%	$125B	$14.4B
No IPO by deadline	65.5%	60.7%	N/A	—
Probability total	107.9%	100.0%	—	—

Why Rai normalizes the raw total

These independently traded market prices add up to 107.9%, rather than 100%. Rai scales each probability proportionally so the outcomes form a complete distribution.

This gap is not a Polymarket fee. It can reflect bid–ask spreads, uneven liquidity, or prices recorded at different times. When the gap is relatively large, normalization can meaningfully affect the estimate.

Calculation details

IPO-ladder calculation

All monetary values are calculated internally in millions of US dollars.

01
Normalize the ladder
Each raw probability ÷ 107.9%
100.0%
02
Weight IPO outcomes
Σ conditional probability × assigned bracket value
$56.6B
03
Discount the future IPO branch
IPO scenario ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^1.39
$49.6B
04
Mix current-equivalent branches
IPO odds × discounted IPO cap + residual odds × current private scenario value of $20B
$31.6B

Assumptions

Configured valuation assumptions

Closed brackets use arithmetic midpoints. Open brackets and the no-IPO scenario use configured values. The no-IPO value is already a current private-company scenario, so it is not discounted again.

Assumptions as of Jul 24, 2026: source and rationale . Scenario inputs translate the source IPO capitalization ladder into current-equivalent dollars. They are not additional market observations.

Annual discount rate: 10.0%
Expected valuation date: Dec 31, 2027
Lower open bracket: $15B
Upper open bracket: $125B
Current no-IPO scenario value: $20B
Probability method: Bid–ask midpoint, then last trade

Sensitivity

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Each check varies one configured assumption from its base value.

5.0% discount rate

$32.9B

20.0% discount rate

$29.4B

$15B no-IPO scenario

$28.6B

$25B no-IPO scenario

$34.7B

Source markets

Polymarket source quotes

PolymarketGamma API · tradable midpoint preferred · API docs · terms

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Below $20B

Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask: 5.0% / 8.3%
Volume: $4,776
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$20B–$30B

Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask: 5.0% / 7.5%
Volume: $7,742
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$30B–$40B

Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask: 4.3% / 5.5%
Volume: $4,706
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$40B–$50B

Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask: 2.5% / 5.7%
Volume: $4,518
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$50B–$75B

Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask: 6.1% / 9.3%
Volume: $6,788
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$75B–$100B

Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask: 7.5% / 8.4%
Volume: $3,748
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

Above $100B

Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?

Bid / ask: 4.3% / 5.5%
Volume: $5,204
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Displayed bid–ask midpoint

No IPO by deadline

Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Bid / ask: 64.0% / 67.0%
Volume: $108,724
Provider / fetched: Aug 11, 2026, 5:58 PM EDT / Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

View market

Important limitations

Scope and limitations

Prediction prices may be illiquid, stale, or distorted. Open-ended brackets require judgment. First-day IPO market capitalization is not intrinsic value, and this model does not account for future dilution, capital raised, or operating fundamentals.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Perplexity, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Method 02 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 6 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$22.94B

Difference from Rai estimate: -15.9%
Share of combined estimate: 50.0%
Updated: Aug 11, 2026, 6:02 PM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$22.94BThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$23.8BMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $20B

56.5%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $50B

4.4%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that Perplexity reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$17.1B–$20B43.5%

$18.5B assigned$8.1B contribution

$20B–$22.5B8.5%

$21.3B assigned$1.8B contribution

$22.5B–$25B35.0%

$23.8B assigned$8.3B contribution

$25B–$30B1.5%

$27.5B assigned$413M contribution

$30B–$40B4.0%

$35B assigned$1.4B contribution

$40B–$50B3.1%

$45B assigned$1.4B contribution

$50B or higher4.4%

$55B assigned$2.4B contribution

Open threshold audit table

Threshold	Source quote	Fitted	Wallets	Provider updated
$20B or higher	56.5%	56.5%	48	Aug 11, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT
$22.5B or higher	48.0%	48.0%	70	Aug 11, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT
$25B or higher	13.0%	13.0%	69	Aug 11, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT
$30B or higher	11.5%	11.5%	41	Aug 11, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT
$40B or higher	7.5%	7.5%	47	Aug 11, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT
$50B or higher	4.4%	4.4%	56	Aug 11, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

01
Select market quotes
Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold
6 contracts
02
Fit a monotone curve
The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one
Equal-weight isotonic fit
03
Difference adjacent thresholds
P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band
$23.8B
04
Translate the peak to current value
Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39
$22.9B

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 25, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak: 10.0%
Market deadline: Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor: $17.1B
Upper-tail representative: $55B
Curve constraint: Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method: Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$12.8B lower floor

$22.9B

$17.1B lower floor

$23.8B

$55B upper tail

$23.8B

$82.5B upper tail

$25B

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Perplexity, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.

Perplexity

Methods behind this estimate

Normalized market probabilities

IPO-ladder calculation

Normalize the ladder

Weight IPO outcomes

Discount the future IPO branch

Mix current-equivalent branches

Configured valuation assumptions

One-variable sensitivity analysis

Polymarket source quotes

Below $20B

$20B–$30B

$30B–$40B

$40B–$50B

$50B–$75B

$75B–$100B

Above $100B

No IPO by deadline

Scope and limitations

Cumulative threshold distribution

Threshold-curve calculation

Select market quotes

Fit a monotone curve

Difference adjacent thresholds

Translate the peak to current value

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

Polymarket threshold contracts

$20B or higher

$22.5B or higher

$25B or higher

$30B or higher

$40B or higher

$50B or higher

Scope and limitations