Rai

Defense technology

Anduril

This estimate uses Polymarket markets on how high Anduril’s valuation may reach by December 31, 2026.

Estimated current valuation

$136.69B-0.02%1D

A market-derived estimate of what Anduril may be worth today. The full calculation and assumptions are shown below.

Estimate range
$136.69B–$136.69B
Estimates used
1
How combined
Single estimate
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$136.69B
  2. Threshold curve0.0%
    100.0% of combined estimate$136.69B

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
13
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT
Realized volatility
27.4%
12D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$137.06B$137.06B–$137.06B1
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$136.71B$136.71B–$136.71B1
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$137.22B$137.22B–$137.22B1
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$134.44B$134.44B–$134.44B1
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$137.73B$137.73B–$137.73B1
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$132.96B$132.96B–$132.96B1
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$132.29B$132.29B–$132.29B1
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$131.73B$131.73B–$131.73B1
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$131.66B$131.66B–$131.66B1
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$131.10B$131.10B–$131.10B1
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$132.14B$132.14B–$132.14B1
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$131.97B$131.97B–$131.97B1
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$131.40B$131.40B–$131.40B1

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 5 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$136.69B
Difference from Rai estimate
0.0%
Share of combined estimate
100.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$136.69BThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$141.8BMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $110B

75.0%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $200B

8.0%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that Anduril reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$100B–$110B25.0%
$105B assigned$26.3B contribution
$110B–$125B21.0%
$117.5B assigned$24.7B contribution
$125B–$150B28.5%
$137.5B assigned$39.2B contribution
$150B–$175B4.5%
$162.5B assigned$7.3B contribution
$175B–$200B13.0%
$187.5B assigned$24.4B contribution
$200B or higher8.0%
$250B assigned$20B contribution
Open threshold audit table
ThresholdSource quoteFittedWalletsProvider updated
$110B or higher75.0%75.0%54Aug 12, 2026, 2:07 PM EDT
$125B or higher54.0%54.0%70Aug 12, 2026, 2:07 PM EDT
$150B or higher25.5%25.5%39Aug 12, 2026, 2:06 PM EDT
$175B or higher21.0%21.0%48Aug 12, 2026, 2:07 PM EDT
$200B or higher8.0%8.0%62Aug 12, 2026, 2:06 PM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

  1. 01

    Select market quotes

    Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold

    5 contracts
  2. 02

    Fit a monotone curve

    The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one

    Equal-weight isotonic fit
  3. 03

    Difference adjacent thresholds

    P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band

    $141.8B
  4. 04

    Translate the peak to current value

    Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39

    $136.7B

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak
10.0%
Market deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor
$100B
Upper-tail representative
$250B
Curve constraint
Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method
Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$75B lower floor

$138.7B

$100B lower floor

$141.8B

$250B upper tail

$141.8B

$375B upper tail

$151.8B

Source markets

Polymarket threshold contracts

PolymarketGamma and Data APIs · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$110B or higher

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by December 31?

Source / fitted
75.0% / 75.0%
Bid / ask
74.0% / 76.0%
Wallets / volume
54 / $9,444
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 2:07 PM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$125B or higher

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?

Source / fitted
54.0% / 54.0%
Bid / ask
43.0% / 65.0%
*

The spread is 22.0%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.

Wallets / volume
70 / $7,880
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 2:07 PM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$150B or higher

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?

Source / fitted
25.5% / 25.5%
Bid / ask
25.0% / 26.0%
Wallets / volume
39 / $3,457
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 2:06 PM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$175B or higher

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?

Source / fitted
21.0% / 21.0%
Bid / ask
17.0% / 25.0%
Wallets / volume
48 / $5,897
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 2:07 PM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$200B or higher

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?

Source / fitted
8.0% / 8.0%
Bid / ask
7.0% / 9.0%
Wallets / volume
62 / $12,339
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 2:06 PM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 2:10 PM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Anduril, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.