Rai

Data and artificial intelligence

Databricks

This estimate uses Polymarket markets on how high Databricks’s valuation may reach by December 31, 2026.

Estimated current valuation

$223.59B+0.12%1D

A market-derived estimate of what Databricks may be worth today. The full calculation and assumptions are shown below.

Estimate range
$223.59B–$223.59B
Estimates used
1
How combined
Single estimate
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT

How the estimate is built

Combined estimate and inputs

Each bar uses the same valuation scale. The percentage shows how much the method counts toward the combined estimate.

  1. Rai estimateCombined current valuation
    Headline estimate$223.59B
  2. Threshold curve0.0%
    100.0% of combined estimate$223.59B

Valuation history

Valuation and relative performance over time

Switch between dollar estimates and performance normalized against Rai’s peer index and QQQ.

Observations
13
First recorded
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
Latest recorded
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT
Realized volatility
38.7%
12D window · annualized
How history calculations work

The performance view sets each available series to 100 at its first observation in the selected timeframe. The Rai Index compounds the equal-weighted daily returns of every other company available in consecutive snapshots; it excludes the company being viewed.

QQQ is the Invesco QQQ ETF used as a public-market technology benchmark. Rai stores the raw daily close from Alpha Vantage; non-trading days carry the latest prior close. This is a price-return comparison, not a dividend-adjusted total return.

Rai calculates the annualized sample standard deviation of daily logarithmic changes over the latest 30 days. It waits for at least seven daily changes. This describes movement in Rai’s model estimate, not the risk of a traded security.

View recorded values
ObservedRai estimateMethod rangeMethods
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 AM EDT$222.21B$222.21B–$222.21B1
Aug 11, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$223.33B$223.33B–$223.33B1
Aug 10, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$220.89B$220.89B–$220.89B1
Aug 9, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$220.81B$220.81B–$220.81B1
Aug 8, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$219.20B$219.20B–$219.20B1
Aug 7, 2026, 8:17 AM EDT$218.52B$218.52B–$218.52B1
Aug 6, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$225.05B$225.05B–$225.05B1
Aug 5, 2026, 8:16 AM EDT$212.77B$212.77B–$212.77B1
Aug 4, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT$212.43B$212.43B–$212.43B1
Aug 3, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$214.36B$214.36B–$214.36B1
Aug 2, 2026, 8:31 AM EDT$215.89B$215.89B–$215.89B1
Aug 1, 2026, 8:30 AM EDT$213.08B$213.08B–$213.08B1
Jul 31, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT$214.94B$214.94B–$214.94B1

Detailed calculations

Methods behind this estimate

For readers who want the math, each method’s probability inputs, assumptions, sensitivity checks, and source markets are shown below.

Method 01 · prediction market

Prediction-market valuation threshold curve

Polymarket · 6 thresholds · maximum NPM Price by Dec 31, 2026

Method estimate$223.59B
Difference from Rai estimate
0.0%
Share of combined estimate
100.0%
Updated
Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT

Deadline-peak current equivalent

$223.59BThreshold method’s input to the Rai current valuation · 10.0% annual bridge

Expected maximum by deadline

$232BMaximum qualifying NPM Price through Dec 31, 2026

Chance of at least $180B

97.2%Fitted cumulative probability

Chance of at least $300B

6.5%Open upper-tail probability

Implied distribution

Cumulative threshold distribution

Each contract prices the chance that Databricks reaches at least its threshold under the configured NPM Price definition. Adjacent fitted probabilities are differenced to avoid double-counting. Read the source rules .

$170B–$180B2.8%
$175B assigned$5B contribution
$180B–$190B10.2%
$185B assigned$18.8B contribution
$190B–$200B16.0%
$195B assigned$31.2B contribution
$200B–$225B25.0%
$212.5B assigned$53.1B contribution
$225B–$250B20.0%
$237.5B assigned$47.5B contribution
$250B–$300B19.5%
$275B assigned$53.6B contribution
$300B or higher6.5%
$350B assigned$22.8B contribution
Open threshold audit table
ThresholdSource quoteFittedWalletsProvider updated
$180B or higher97.2%97.2%141Aug 12, 2026, 10:29 AM EDT
$190B or higher87.0%87.0%101Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT
$200B or higher71.0%71.0%67Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT
$225B or higher46.0%46.0%58Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT
$250B or higher26.0%26.0%41Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT
$300B or higher6.5%6.5%36Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT

Calculation details

Threshold-curve calculation

The source distribution describes the highest valuation reached by the deadline. The current-equivalent figure is reported separately as an assumption-driven scenario.

  1. 01

    Select market quotes

    Use one selected Polymarket quote for each configured NPM Price threshold

    6 contracts
  2. 02

    Fit a monotone curve

    The chance of exceeding a higher value cannot exceed the chance of exceeding a lower one

    Equal-weight isotonic fit
  3. 03

    Difference adjacent thresholds

    P(band) = P(above lower) − P(above upper), then weight each band

    $232B
  4. 04

    Translate the peak to current value

    Peak value ÷ (1 + 10.0%)^0.39

    $223.6B

Assumptions

Lower- and upper-tail assumptions

The lowest band is anchored at a known valuation floor. Closed bands use midpoints, while the open upper tail needs an explicit representative value.

Assumptions as of Jul 30, 2026: source and rationale . The floor, open tail, and deadline-peak translation rate are explicit scenario inputs rather than prediction-market facts.

Expected annual growth to peak
10.0%
Market deadline
Dec 31, 2026
Lower valuation floor
$170B
Upper-tail representative
$350B
Curve constraint
Equal-weight non-increasing fit
Probability method
Single-source Polymarket curve

Sensitivity

Growth-rate and upper-tail sensitivity

These checks vary the distribution’s open lower and upper tails. The current-equivalent bridge is an assumption-driven input to the Rai current valuation, not a direct market quote.

$127.5B lower floor

$231.4B

$170B lower floor

$232B

$350B upper tail

$232B

$525B upper tail

$243.3B

Source markets

Polymarket threshold contracts

PolymarketGamma and Data APIs · API docs · terms
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$180B or higher

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?

Source / fitted
97.2% / 97.2%
Bid / ask
97.0% / 97.3%
Wallets / volume
141 / $19,288
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:29 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$190B or higher

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?

Source / fitted
87.0% / 87.0%
Bid / ask
86.0% / 88.0%
Wallets / volume
101 / $11,665
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$200B or higher

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?

Source / fitted
71.0% / 71.0%
Bid / ask
61.0% / 81.0%
*

The spread is 20.0%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.

Wallets / volume
67 / $6,116
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$225B or higher

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?

Source / fitted
46.0% / 46.0%
Bid / ask
25.0% / 67.0%
*

The spread is 42.0%, above Rai’s 10 percentage-point warning threshold.

Wallets / volume
58 / $5,038
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$250B or higher

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?

Source / fitted
26.0% / 26.0%
Bid / ask
24.0% / 28.0%
Wallets / volume
41 / $3,707
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT
View market
Displayed bid–ask midpoint

$300B or higher

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?

Source / fitted
6.5% / 6.5%
Bid / ask
5.0% / 8.0%
Wallets / volume
36 / $4,607
*

These are trading wallets, not verified people. They are diagnostic only and do not affect the fit.

Provider / fetched
Aug 12, 2026, 10:28 AM EDT / Aug 12, 2026, 10:35 AM EDT
View market
Important limitations

Scope and limitations

The contracts resolve on the highest qualifying non-public-market or public-market valuation observed before the deadline. The estimate is path-dependent and should not be read as a terminal, intrinsic, year-end, or current value. Thin markets, correlated contract errors, the chosen floor, and the open upper tail can all affect the result.

This estimate is not an ownership interest in Databricks, an offer to buy or sell securities, or investment advice.